2024: Deciphering the Next Phase of the AI Revolution

AI’s accelerating force continues to bring an exponential shift to our daily lives.

As 2023 draws to a close, we reflect on a year when Artificial Intelligence moved from a tech buzzword to a tangible force in our daily lives. This year, AI didn’t just advance technically; it sparked vital discussions about its role in society. Topics like privacy, the future of work, and ethical AI moved from academic circles to our everyday conversations.

Looking ahead to 2024, anticipation builds for what AI will unfold next. The coming year promises deeper insights into AI’s influence on the global economy, governance, research, business, and personal experiences. As we step into this future, we’re not just witnessing a technological evolution but engaging with a revolution redefining our world in real-time. In 2024, we will continue exploring how AI shapes our tools and reimagines our lives.

Global AI Economy: The New Geopolitics and Beyond

Shift in Global Economic Power Centers Due to AI

Speculation: The global economic landscape is poised for a dramatic transformation due to AI. Nations investing significantly in AI, like China, are on the verge of becoming new economic powerhouses. This shift will likely favor countries prioritizing AI development and strategically using it to gain international leverage and drive economic growth.

Signal: China’s ambitious “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan” exemplifies this change. Targeting global leadership in AI by 2030, this plan signals a potential realignment of global economic power, pivoting on AI innovation and implementation. Such national strategies suggest a future where economic dominance is increasingly linked to AI prowess.

Emergence of AI-Specific Trade Policies and Agreements

Speculation: As AI technology becomes more integral to global commerce, international trade agreements will likely incorporate AI-specific clauses. These clauses will probably address key issues such as intellectual property rights in AI and data governance, adapting to AI's significant role in global trade dynamics.

Signal: The trend towards AI-specific trade policies is evident from recent geopolitical developments. For instance, the U.S. government’s decision to restrict exports of advanced AI chips to China underscores AI's strategic importance in international trade and national security. This action and ongoing discussions in forums like the WTO signal a shift towards formalizing AI-specific terms in international trade policies.

Economic Policy Reformation Due to AI-driven Automation

Speculation: With AI-driven automation increasingly prevalent in industries, governments are likely to initiate reforms in economic policies. These reforms will address the challenges of workforce displacement and the rising need for re-skilling as automation transforms job markets and work dynamics.

Signal: The trend of increasing AI-driven automation across various industries is already causing shifts in the job market. Numerous studies and reports from various sources indicate a rise in automation, leading to changes in workforce dynamics. These include both job displacements and the creation of new job types, necessitating economic policy reforms. The data reflects AI's immediate and growing impact on employment, highlighting the need for governments to adopt policies to manage this transition effectively.

AI Governance: Steering the Unseen Forces

Responsible AI in Business: Emerging Trends and Talent Needs

Speculation: The rise of responsible AI in businesses is expected to continue to rise in importance and investment. This shift will likely lead to a growing need for specialized talent in organizational roles focused on ethical AI development, integration, and deployment. Professionals skilled in navigating the complexities of responsible AI will become increasingly valuable as companies seek to mitigate risk in their journey to integrate AI technologies in ways that are ethical, transparent, and compliant with ever-emerging regulations.

Signal: The increasing emphasis on AI ethics in business practices is already evident. Companies are actively seeking experts in AI ethics, governance, and compliance. This demand responds to the broader societal call for responsible AI development and the anticipation of stricter regulatory environments. This trend reflects a dual objective: to capitalize on the immense potential of AI while moving forward in an urgent yet measured manner. A balance of capturing the upside of AI technology with responsible and ethical deployment. This approach clearly responds to societal calls for responsible AI and anticipates a more regulated AI landscape.

Rise of AI Auditing and Certification Agencies

Speculation: The rise of independent AI auditing and certification agencies is gaining momentum. These agencies are expected to play a pivotal role in ensuring AI systems adhere to ethical standards, are free from biases, and maintain transparency. The growth of such agencies indicates an increasing demand for accountability in AI development and deployment, emphasizing the importance of responsible AI practices.

Signal: Initiatives like AlgorithmWatch, which researches AI’s societal impact, and the International Association of Algorithmic Auditors (IAAA), seeking to professionalize AI auditing, signify this trend. AlgorithmWatch’s involvement in projects like “Auditing Algorithms for Systemic Risks” and the IAAA’s focus on standardizing AI auditing processes underscore the growing need for transparent and ethically compliant AI systems. These developments highlight the evolving landscape of AI governance and the critical need for effective oversight mechanisms.

Implementation of AI-Specific Legal Frameworks

Speculation: Alongside developing specific legal frameworks for AI, governments may also begin to explore regulations surrounding AI ethics, usage in public sectors, and cross-border data flows. These efforts could lead to a more standardized global approach to AI governance.

Signal: The AI Act proposed by the European Commission is just the beginning. Other regions, like the United States and Asia, might introduce similar legislation. EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act) and Artificial Intelligence Liability Directive (AILD), aim to regulate AI and protect individuals’ rights. These frameworks, designed to align with GDPR, underscore a global trend towards establishing specific legal boundaries for AI technologies. International bodies like the United Nations could also play a role in harmonizing AI laws, aiming for a balanced approach that fosters innovation while protecting citizens’ rights and ensuring ethical AI usage. This global trend towards AI-specific legislation will likely gain momentum, shaping the future of AI development and deployment.

Frontiers of AI: Research and Breakthroughs

Advancements in AI-Language Models: A Dual Perspective

Speculation: In 2024, the AI landscape is poised for intriguing developments in language models. We’re likely to witness a significant shift with two major trends emerging. Firstly, there’s a strong push towards creating substantially larger models, up to 100 times the size of current models like GPT-4. These larger models are expected to reveal new capabilities and set new benchmarks in performance.

On the other side, an equally important trend is the development of smaller, highly efficient models. These compact models are designed to fit the constraints of mobile devices, opening up new possibilities for AI-driven interfaces and operating systems. The ability to run advanced AI directly on handheld devices could revolutionize how we interact with technology, making AI a more integrated and intuitive part of our daily lives.

Signal: Evidence for this dual development path comes from the current wave of research and development in the AI sector. The academic and tech industries invest in upscaling language models and innovate smaller, optimized versions. While the AGI race fuels frontier model training and reasoning research, the latter part of 2023 has seen a notable surge in the release of compact AI models. Among these, prime examples are ‘Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-v0.1’, Microsoft’s ‘Phi-2’, and ‘Dolphin 2.5 Mixtral 8x7B’. These models exemplify the industry’s focus on creating AI systems that are advanced in capabilities, highly adaptable, and ready to tune and integrate.

Multimodal AI Integration

Speculation: Integrating multimodal AI models, which can process and combine various data forms like text, images, videos, and audio, is expected to advance significantly by 2024. These models will likely revolutionize user experiences across smart devices, IoT applications, and interactive platforms. The first year of ChatGPT showcased this by integrating diverse models like Code Interpreter, DALL-E, and Whisper, along with new input modalities such as Vision and Voice. The seamless and rapid integration of these capabilities into a cohesive experience exemplifies the potential of multimodal AI.

Signal: The trend towards multimodal AI is already evident, with tech giants like Google and Meta incorporating these models into products like smart glasses and IoT devices. The increasing volume of research publications and patents in multimodal AI confirms a strong movement in this direction. This growth, coupled with the impressive product release schedule and integration achievements of ChatGPT, points to a future where multimodal AI will be a cornerstone of technological innovation and user experience.

The power of multimodal AI is not just a technological marvel but a boon for artists and creators. By blending text, audio, visuals, and more, new AI tools open new horizons in artistic expression. The emergence of platforms like Curious Refuge, dedicated to AI filmmaking, is a testament to this transformation. Artists create masterpieces that merge elements in unprecedented ways, inspiring audiences and enriching the cultural landscape.

Independent AI Agents

Speculation: By 2024, we anticipate a significant leap in developing independent AI agents. These agents will be designed to perform tasks autonomously with minimal user input. Email management, trip planning, legal assistance, and health monitoring are expected to see substantial advancements. The goal is to create AI systems that operate independently, understanding and anticipating user needs with little to no direct guidance.

Signal: The development of independent AI agents is receiving a significant boost, as evidenced by the Hierarchical Autonomous Agent Swarm (HAAS) project. This represents a novel approach in AI where a swarm of specialized, hierarchically organized agents collaborates autonomously. All proof that agents are here; they just have some assembly required. Microsoft’s AutoGen framework, with its Multi-agent Conversation feature, demonstrates the potential of AI agents to engage in complex, autonomous interactions. The challenge lies in effectively integrating these components — LLMs, tools, and data. As we gain more experience in this integration, the development of autonomous AI agents will rapidly accelerate.

AI in the Enterprise: Business Transformation

Generative Coding and Citizen Development

Speculation: AI’s role in generative coding and citizen development is set to expand significantly, empowering non-technical individuals to create software and applications. This democratization of development is poised to spark a wave of innovation and custom solutions across various industries.

Signal: The rise of AI-powered coding assistants and low-code/no-code platforms is a key indicator of this trend. Gartner predicts that by 2024, the majority of technology products and services will be built by professionals outside of IT, underscoring the growing impact of these accessible development tools.

AI-Enhanced Education: Industry-Led Skills-Based Training

Speculation: Education systems will increasingly integrate AI-enhanced, industry-led skills-based training. This shift will be influenced by industry leaders, like Amazon’s CTO, advocating for more practical, skills-focused education to meet the evolving demands of the tech sector.

Signal: OpenAI’s exploration of ChatGPT’s use in education aligns with the trend of industry-led skills training. Educators utilize ChatGPT for innovative teaching methods, such as role-playing challenging conversations, creating quizzes, and assisting non-English speakers. This practical application of AI in education supports industry goals for skill-specific training, showcasing AI’s potential to revolutionize learning approaches.

Integration of Generative AI in Various Career Paths

Speculation: Generative AI will continue integrating into diverse career paths, particularly in software development and content creation. This integration will transform these fields, enhancing creativity and efficiency.

Signal: Amazon is tackling the skills gap by focusing on on-the-job learning and apprenticeships, particularly in robotics and manufacturing. This initiative, part of Amazon’s pledge to invest over $1.2 billion in employee education and skills training by 2025, helps employees advance their careers. It benefits individuals and enhances Amazon’s operational efficiency and innovation.

The Personal AI Experience: Living with Intelligent Machines

Personalized AI Assistants Evolving into Life Coaches

Speculation: The evolution of personal AI assistants into comprehensive life coaches marks a significant shift in AI application. Moving beyond basic task management, these assistants are poised to offer bespoke guidance across a spectrum of personal matters, from professional development to lifestyle optimization. Using advanced data analysis, they will adapt to individual preferences and needs, offering insights and recommendations tailored to each user.

Signal: Developments in AI systems capable of analyzing and utilizing personal data are already visible in health, fitness, and personalized learning applications. DeepMind’s Mustafa Suleyman envisions AI chatbots as personal chiefs of staff, capable of managing and prioritizing tasks in the user’s interest. This underscores this trend toward holistic, AI-powered personal assistance and progression to ‘Artificial Capable Intelligence.’ This evolution will see AI systems offering sophisticated, personalized advice on various life aspects, moving beyond routine tasks to strategic life management.

AI-Powered Robotics: Enhanced Interaction and Autonomy

Speculation: The acceleration of AI, advancements in simulation, and the rise of synthetic data rapidly bridge the gap in the development of functional humanoid robots. This progress will substantially benefit labor-intensive and hazardous jobs, such as in construction or mining. Furthermore, these advancements are poised to alleviate human shortages in sensitive sectors like healthcare, offering new solutions in hospital work and care services.

Signal: The unveiling of Tesla’s Optimus Gen 2 humanoid robot showcases significant advancements in AI-powered robotics. Optimus Gen 2 is designed to perform complex tasks, indicating the potential of these robots to take over repetitive and hazardous human jobs. This development signals the growing capabilities and utility of AI-driven humanoid robots in various sectors coming faster than we thought.

Shift from Screen-Based to Voice-Activated Interactions

Speculation: We’re moving towards a future where interactions with technology will shift from screen-based to voice-activated systems. This transition is driven by advancements in AI, leading to more intuitive, reliable, and widespread voice interfaces. In everyday technology, from mobile devices to home automation, voice commands are becoming the primary mode of interaction, enhancing user accessibility and convenience.

Signal: The launch of products like the AI Pin exemplifies this trend. AI Pin offers new ways of interacting with technology, such as voice-activated commands and laser ink displays, moving beyond traditional touch and screen-based inputs. This product indicates a significant step towards more advanced and user-friendly voice-activated interfaces, signaling a broader shift in how we engage with technology.

Advancing with AI, Anchoring in Humanity

2024 marks a critical year in the AI revolution, reshaping everything from global economic dynamics to daily personal interactions. We’re seeing AI redefine economic power, push ethical boundaries in governance, drive business innovations, and become an integral part of our personal lives. This evolution is a technological leap and a reimagining of how we live and work with intelligent machines.

This transformative era requires a thoughtful balance between embracing AI’s potential and addressing its ethical challenges. Our decisions will set the course for how AI integrates into our society. As we navigate this journey, our focus shouldn’t just be on what AI can do but on harnessing its capabilities to enhance and enrich the human experience.